Wednesday, 13 February 2008

Smoking bans can kill (updated x2)

According to this report in the The Boston Globe smoking bans can kill. The Globe points to research soon to be published in the Journal of Public Economics. The paper, "Drunk driving after the passage of smoking bans in bars" by S. Adams and C. Cotti, shows that smoking bans increase drunken-driving fatalities. The Globe writes,
SMOKING BANS CAN be hazardous to some people's health. A rigorous statistical examination has found that smoking bans increase drunken-driving fatalities. One might expect that a ban on smoking in bars would deter some people from showing up, thereby reducing the number of people driving home drunk. But jurisdictions with smoking bans often border jurisdictions without bans, and some bars may skirt the ban, so that smokers can bypass the ban with extra driving. There is also a large overlap between the smoker and alcoholic populations, which would exacerbate the danger from extra driving. The authors estimate that smoking bans increase fatal drunken-driving accidents by about 13 percent, or about 2.5 such accidents per year for a typical county.
The Law of Unintended Consequences yet again. The interesting question is how will the health fascists react to such news. Ban drinking as well?

Update: Comments from Tyler Cowen at Marginal Revolution are here. Phil Miller at Market Power comments here.

Update 2: At Productivity Shock they point out that
If you have ScienceDirect access, the article is online already, and here is the abstract:

Using geographic variation in local and state smoke-free bar laws in the US, we observe an increase in fatal accidents involving alcohol following bans on smoking in bars that is not observed in places without bans. Although an increased accident risk might seem surprising at first, two strands of literature on consumer behavior suggest potential explanations — smokers driving longer distances to a bordering jurisdiction that allows smoking in bars and smokers driving longer distances within their jurisdiction to bars that still allow smoking, perhaps through non-compliance or outdoor seating. We find evidence consistent with both explanations. The increased miles driven by drivers wishing to smoke and drink offsets any reduction in driving from smokers choosing to stay home following a ban, resulting in increased alcohol-related accidents. This result proves durable, as we subject it to an extensive battery of robustness checks.


Crampton said...

Surely though this is an argument that any such bans ought be extended over the entire polity rather than being applied piecemeal. Because then you wouldn't have folks driving between jurisdictions.

I'm pretty sure that I've seen work, likely Stratmann and Klick, showing that dry counties lead to more drink driving fatalities due to similar causes...

Paul Walker said...

Or we could do away with the smoking ban. Because then you wouldn't have folks driving between jurisdictions.